Tuesday 13 July 2010

€$ and $CHF












I have been busy recently so have not been able to update this blog since last week and you will notice that for the recent past i have been preoccupied with €$ and its reversal since early June. Things came to a crunch last week when price seemed to be running out of steam and i could see signs of an exhaustion pattern forming. As i said in my last post at the end of last week 'The euro needs to get a move on or fail again at the centre line'. I am pleased that at least Gregg Fisher now agrees with what i have been saying since early June but makes no mention of the first failure to get to the CL & subsequent sell-off and the second failure that was looming at the end of last week.
Why was i worried...well look at the $CHF charts above and you will see the CL failure and what it lead to. However since i started this blog today i guess i should never have worried for the Euro...! The Euro has rallied about 150 basis points since i started thsi blog about 2 hrs ago after testing support down towards 1.2500 but what alarmed me was yesterdays drop after what i thought was some consolidation on Friday but the forks revealed all and price dropped sharply.
I watched as price fell through one line after another and one reaction line after another and felt that the end was neigh!! How quickly things can change.......1.2662 as i write this and $ CHF has collapsed and is 1.0540...you can see potential support at the 1.0500 area on the above chart at the confluence of the green CL and the blue LMLP...time will tell.
As for the €uro....now we have a confirmed trend and the B-Line ( stoch 35-10-1)on the 240 and daily chart which was diving downwards has reversed half way due to today's price action and now curves upwards from about 50. Although this is not a leading indicator it is just one more encouraging sign. Now i will wait for the coming retracement after today's move and check the reaction lines and reversal time dates and see if i can get a tailored high prob entry which i will publish live with the entire trade method/reasoning.

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