Saturday 18 September 2010

Weekend -reaction methods Part One

Are you sitting comfortably? There are many methods of using reaction lines in your charts/technical analysis. You can use the distance from the A to BC line of your fork by projecting it forward, which is the most common method found in use. Then you can use the reverse count method expounded by John Crane in his remarkably confusing book Advanced Swing Trading (available free as PDF file from me- pls contact) which is complicated but again can yield remarkable results. One of the problems with the book is it was written some years ago ( not many) but long enough to have been surpassed by nearly all charting packages which now offer Andrews forks as a standard drawing tool plus some chart packages that can do dedicated reverse bar counts between swing highs/lows and draw reaction lines etc. It may seem hard to imagine and few of us have needed to try, but drawing an Andrews fork by hand using a pencil and ruler is a time consuming occupation and includes a fair amount of work just to get a simple ML set.
Below is a daily bar chart of the US Dollar index showing recent activity and have have plotted both the reverse count to two significant swing lows and also i have plotted the projected reaction lines to both swing lows. The 'bottom line' here is that if these two methods are used together along with other less well known reaction line applications i can think of no indicators or trading system/theory that can so powerfully predict/project market turning points in price action. In the second weekend posting i will show you why i believe the USD Index is going higher ( contrary to my bullish view on the euro strengthening) and why the Reverse/Forward count from 83E to the recent late summer pivot/reversal point at 84F is so important

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