Tuesday, 30 November 2010


DX, 60 secs/1 min

€$ final

Lastly, we still have a CL failure on the most obvious fork - here in thick mauve/violet in a simplified chart. Forget moving the P2 to the right hand /alternative pivot (as in the thin mauve violet fork shown here) as even though it may yield some good reaction & median lines and is as valid as any fork - Price must still hit the CL of the correct thick mauve fork in order to avoid the reversals which in this example are at least 2 plus the one we are currently undergoing.


Non touch (Hagopians law) on the green CL means higher



This is quite a bullish chart formation...a double bottom or 'Big W' and they come in all shapes and sizes


We are making a rounded top and may make another before going lower...this is a big one so the move will be in proportion. These 'ledges' or 'steps' are not easy to trade and consist of endless price failures and a break of any previous low pivot usually ends up with a retracement back up above that pivot. Unless you sell the top of each 'step' and hold the short position but there is the added risk that price may not reach the CL & reverse although in this case it looks highly improbable.


Is this a price failure in the thick green fork? I am not sure.
Price (as yet) has a long way down to go to the orange CL but its way is being barred by a great big fat RL from a fork in a higher TF but i have my suspicions that we may see a break out upwards after support was found at the .618 fib RT at 1.3006...The choice is either the orange CL at around 1.2980 or upwards and a break of the Fib low at 1.3006 will tell us which it is. Incidentally the DX looks like its going higher.

Euro$ & the DX

We have reached a critical level. The blue horizontal CL. This fork also provided the reaction line that broke the USD fall and it is in my opinion this RL that carries price higher. Now we are at this CL and also the pink UMLP from the pink mod Schiff fork and the black UMLP( in the daily chart these colours apply) PLUS we have €$ holding after the test of 1.300...I now favour the upside for a correction which could be substantial ie maybe a few hundred BPTS and 1.3100.
I know the market will try to push the Euro but there could easily be a short squeeze triggered by a piece of fundamental news. At the very least we will see (and are seeing as i write this €$ just under 1.3050) a RT. At some point it will be a sell but only watching this pair closely will the correct level be apparent -it may be a repeated median line or a reaction line price failure but we will then see it back to test these lows. Of course i keep a careful eye on the DX as this tells me where price is going as my Euro$ chart has very few reaction/warning lines and very few forks in any decent time frame of use (30,60, 240 mins). If the DX comes back for a second attempt at 81.50 & goes through with speed then we know that we are on our way down to the euro basement and the mid 1.20's

Monday, 29 November 2010

Double Tops in the Russell

as per my weekend post

€$...the power of the reaction-lines-see in the dark

In the chart below ---after a new pivot is formed price must retrace towards the new forks CL ( using the most recent P0- In this case it is caught/supported on the dashed red warning line
( from a fork in a higher time frame but aligned on the most important controlling/ correcting swing ( ie against the prevailing trend)


This is an important and pivotal level between 1.3075-1.3100 . we could hold here and bounce sharply

Sunday, 28 November 2010

USDX and EURUSD & the Russell

Here is the Mini Russell. This looks bullish and i have heard many commentators talking about continuing this equity cycle upwards until summer next year. Price has come back for another second test of the black UMLP. We know from the green fork where price never made it to the CL that price has alot of upwards energy.It held at the 5850 level on the blue horizontal fork. There is however the possibility of a double top here or at least a pull back as we have both RL's from the blue and black forks shown resisting price at current and higher levels. I have extended the RL from the black fork ( shown as feint pink line) as it is my experience that these work as well as any RL's regardless whether price is in or out of the fork. I somehow doubt that double tops are the way forward simply from current price action but you never know. Incidentally the UMLP of the green fork is at the area of the RL from the black fork. From watching price over the years it is almost a certainty that price will take out the Green UMLP of any fork where there is no touch on the CL ( Hagopian's Law) but it may not do it on the first attempt.
RUSSELL 2000 Mini

Here is the USDX following on from my recent reaction line work and reverse/forward count. The US$ under current fundamentals seems likely to go higher and technically looking at the pattern in the day chart should/could get up to test some of the median and reaction line above it. Next major resistance level is the black CL (of the almost horizontal fork) of which its reaction line is clearly seen to have put the breaks on price and we are now ascending behind it on our back way up plus we have (just above current price levels) the also black UMLP of the fork shown . I would look/am looking to take another long position but not at these levels. I would want to see a shallow Fib RT from any of the resisting UMLP's that are congesting the area above price but this trend is strong and we may simply see price carry through to the 81.00 -81.50 level. Mindful of the current divergence showing in MACD and RSI and where we are in the Euro saga i would have to pass up any long trade entry at these levels for the moment. As for a short position it remains to be seen how price will react when it touches the upsloping reaction line (marked on chart RL) but at some point with the current trend these two will meet probably
at the 82.00 area

Here is the €$. I am conscious of the fact that we are at the trigger line ( shown in pink/magenta) of the big black fork.How will price react. If it gos through the trigger line it could drop like a stone heading towards the blue and black down sloping CL's. Again you can also see the RL from this black fork that has dominated price at caused the failure to go higher than the 1.4280 area where price touched the RL. I would look to sell any rallies but think we could go down to the 1.2500 area quicker than we came from 1.18 to 1.43

Thursday, 25 November 2010

Long Euro - $

Highprob setup. reaction line breakthrough. Good shallow Fib RT from all pivots A-B-C and support . 5 pt stp Objective 1.3400 test.
Result: test of 1.34 failed at a high of 1.3386. trade ended flat with no profit or loss as stop was hit at B/E later that evening at 20.50 on 25 Nov

USDX & €$

The Dx is on the way through the important phyc level 80.00 and the Euro looks set for another staged descent towards testing this mornings low of 1.3286 and a convincing breakdown under 1.3300. I have no worries about selling these rallies and have a feeling that we could be going to 1.3250 in a short time. Next objective for the DX is the down sloping pink UMLP in that fork or the black up-sloping UMLP (the former at around 81.00). I suggest to you that traders will relentlessly push the Euro down and try to put as much pressure on it as possible with current fundamentals favouring them. Next RL support on EurUsd at 1.3280-850.
A break above 1.3350 would make me sit up and re-evaluate the situation but with a the current formation/pattern it looks like we will end up where we started this morning by the end of the day even with the USA shut---at 1.3300

Wednesday, 24 November 2010

€$- If the glove fits

The green fork in MT fits perfectly

Tuesday, 23 November 2010

€$ & USDX

DX on the RL and €$ at 1.3374....are we done yet? This is slightly hysterical today with a drop of 200 basis pts since i got out of bed. Once we have a new swing low/pivot we can then make an appraisal of the market ( but obviously it's weak!)

€$ & USDX

OK, nice short trend as we all expected....If you can't get a few pips in that market you should consider basket weaving instead. However now i think we are at a critical level at 1.3400 and i am looking for a short term bounce-maybe back upto 1.3450 . The DX is bang on a resisting reaction line and the €$ is also on a reaction line. I do not however think the Euro will take much time before retesting 1.3400

Monday, 22 November 2010

Euro$ & USDX

The Fib levels have worked well with both the USDX (.382 RT)and the €$ (.50 RT). The green CL beckons in the €$ and there are a number of forks you can draw in addition to the two shown here. However it is doubtful if we will see a straight journey there but sentiment is very bearish and the fundamentals are now in place to push this market below 1.3400. The US $ generally looks strong and the DX itself now has to get up to the 79.50-80.00 area for its first attempt at breaching thereaction line that sits there from the black fork. As for the rest of today i am waiting to see if we are going to have a couple of rolling waves beffore a further break down or if we will see a retest/ rejection of higher levels such as 1.3700 but i suspect that sentiment is too bearish for the latter.

Sunday, 21 November 2010

Friday, 19 November 2010

€$ continued again

OK, as expected re the last post. This afternoon we see price moving in stilted drops and then building a 'shelf' or 'bump' which makes it a difficult market price action to trade as price will usually return to your short entry level- so trades have limited downside and it must be argued that despite all the great entries i have discussed today the risk/reward ratio is very limited unless you take a position in a larger time frame. Also it doesn't matter to me if price never reaches the CL (as in the Schiff mauve fork) as the reaction lines will still interact and dictate price action/direction. I will finish this post later. but remember one thing..... An excellent risk management plan with a mediocre trading plan (mediocre trader) is better than a bad risk management plan with an excellent trading plan (excellent trader).