Wednesday 3 November 2010

Euro $ & the USDX- taking another look











I was so impressed with the strength of the Euro yesterday that i rather rover looked the DX yesterday afternoon and had already written it off as dramatic failure. However upon further examination its not as bad as i thought it was. Take a look at the 5 & 15 min chart. We have price caught between the pink upper MLP and the famous reaction line that i have been posting about for many weeks. Price has been channeled down these two but as yet has not made a breech below the RL and more to the point has not made significant progess towards the pink centre line. Is price "walking the line"? If so then a sharp breakout upwards is possible and the longer price continues between these lines (while failing to get to the CL) the higher the probability of a breakout upwards. Considering that the largest percentage make-up of the DX is the Euro i think the recent weakness in the DX could have been worse.
So where does that leave the Euro and what is the story there? Take a look below. This is a MT 240min chart on which i only have daily and weekly/monthly forks on and when i was looking yesterday i saw that we have two median lines (green and yellow) from two different forks producing a horizontal channel.(If anyone one wants P0-P1-P2 coordinates please contact me- they are pretty obvious though and you could find them easily). Price has been bound strongly by both-so far but must eventually break out one way- usually from the direction from which it has come - but not always. For example in USDJPY last Spring i saw a similar pattern which resulted with a breakdown from the highs (after a false breakout upwards). Does any of this help me decide on the future direction of either the USDX or EurUsd? No , but i can at least see critical lines of support and resistance and these could help plan a future trade setup. For the short term i am expecting the Euro the go higher, but at the same time i am extremely suspicious of price action and as i write i am watching to see if we get a double tops at 1.4050.
The DX is not written of as far as i am concerned- Not yet at least.

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