Monday, 28 February 2011

HG Copper + experimental Vid

Vid for these charts...sorry 10 min video ended up as over 300 mb size and spent hours installing new codecs( Lossless,Divixx,)for CamStudio open source...but as yet its still too large.

Friday, 25 February 2011


This weekend i will be posting a video on this blog showing my take on Reaction Line trading. I will be using Camtasia studio software to capture the screen/charts and cursor plus my voice. I will have look at the USDX( & others) which i think has a very high probability of going lower and i will show you that Multi pivot lines are in fact RL/WL/ML from other forks and how to find the originating fork...but more than that how I use these lines (which are in fact just support and resistance) in trade setups.


Wow, That was a bit hairy.1387-1/2 and now back at the RL. The scale is basically screwed due tot he volatile massive movement so my apologies.
I have a problem with my E-Signal charts since Tuesday and have lost huge amounts of data and working charts so below is a simple fork analysis...all the forks of the pivots shown have had their CL's punctured ( even tho the black one doesn't look like it -scale/object distortion caused this i am afraid)

Beans, beans and more beans

Back on the RL that was responsible for recent price behavior. I know the larger TF charts are a bit scary but have a look at the 1min and 5 min charts. Previous charts/posts will help clarify.

Thursday, 24 February 2011

Gold and Soybeans

spot Gold

This is the same RL set that caused the probs when we were at around 1400-00 ( see earlier posts). Lower? I think so but no positions today.

e-mini S&P


Wednesday, 23 February 2011

beans + mini Dow

stp to b/e

re earlier post.


Not hugely happy about this trade...but i will give it some more time but stop is now only risking 2 pts and will move it ASAP to b/e
My ideas for these trades all come from higher TF charts and in pareticular E-Signal analysis during off hours when the m,arket is closed. Anyone who thinks we have seen the bottom is crazy but i may have misjudged the entry/ retouch point.
First objective is to take out the mod schiff lmlp

Short Soybeans

Thismkt is crapping out within 2 mins of taking this trade. - Mch @ 1312.25/ stp 1316.25
Please understand there are 2 main P0 options of left and 3 variant Forks off the two P0 and p1/p1 ( Schiff/mod Schiff and straight 'Andrews'). All RLs are displayed and price is struggling at the 1316 level after touch on the UMLP. Look at the stoch ribbons+ B-line fall away

mini Dow/S&P- You can make this as difficult as we want .....or

If you spend 10 mins pouring over the larger mini Dow & S+P long term charts you come up with two of the most obvious basic Andrews forks. What we are seeing is a reaction down and away from the blue UMLP and the touch on the black CL. If you look at the 60 min E signal chart you will see that price is heading back down to retouch the black UMLP at 13000. All this info is free with no indicators , Fib levels etc and only 2 forks?

Here is some more detail in lower TF's of the mini dow with many more forks with their WL/RL's etc. The mauve d-sloping Schiff ( not modified) fork is from the most recent major pivots ( fork in thick grey). The RL web/grid is from aqua turquiose blue fork at the recent high and provides great supp/res from its set of RL/WL's.
This correction is well overdue and could be brutal BUT i do not think we will see more than a general shake out due to the mentality of the equity markets which to me is totally different to that of commodity futures in that equity mkt 'investors' seem to feel that stocks have a God given right only to appreciate/go up in value and squeal like little piggy-wiggys whenever these markets do not.The mentality is principally 'long'.

Agriculturals Grains etc

These charts may look confusing and i agree about this point particularly in higher time frames but these charts with multiple forks and their RL/WL's enabled me to identify the recent reversal levels at important RL's long before any other potential method i know. link1, link2 , link 3, link 4
The bottom line is that in 15, 30, 60, 120 mins these charts are uncluttered and remarkably accurate.
So, What now? I think Rice would look cheap at 1280-1300.00 , Wheat on the LMLP at 725-00 and if it holds above 700-00 and if corn holds above 600 to 650-00 then perhaps that also . Regardless of what fundamentals are peddled around global demand must increase and we all have to eat (and 1.3 billion Chinese regardless of Interest rates).
Should we see a sustained fall in these contracts i will look to build a position either as a futures spread or options.

Tuesday, 22 February 2011

EURUSD +FTSE + Trigger line article's a link to an educational article by Mircea Dologa. I brought his books some years ago and was both overwhelmed and underwhelmed by them. However here is a short article from the E-Signal learning base on 'Trigger Lines' and parallel trigger lines. I have been adding them to many forks over the last few months and have found them to have similar attributes to RL/WL/ML/s and can exert influence ( support/resistance) on price long after price has left the 'body' of the relevent fork.Some trigger lines in high time frame forks seem especially important and i have been tracking one in the E Mini Dow. charts to follow

Monday, 21 February 2011

Euro trade final

state of play as i leave the desk

Euro trade cont

I have to leave the office now but have a look at the interaction with the Ensign RL#s and fork and also the failure to make a decent penetration of the CL shown in those charts. If the market doesnt follow through then you can usually find the culprit. Price as literally walked into a wall. Profit loss stop on one or both contracts will be at 1.3660 just below the RL shown in the MT chart after i leave. Markets becoming a tad thin anyway with our US neighbors having a mkt holiday today.

Euro trade cont

Price RTraced a whisker over 50% from highs at 1.3685 at the confluence of the aqua blue ML and grey Andrews fork and pinched the lower Bolly band at 1.3664 which could have been a further entry.It is currently battling with the RL form the magenta mauve fork but i think looks strong as you can see from how it uses previous RL/WL/Mls to bounce off once through them. I have added the blue Schiff so we now have Schiff/mod Schiff and 'normal' Andrews ( thin grey) forks all from the same pivots.
If we fail to make a HH i may take profits on one lot but price is now at 1.3673 so that is not how i see it happening right now.

Euro trade

Dark blue mod Schiff CL hit (arrowed). stp to b/e.

Euro trade

Yellow line is auto drawn sliding parallel

€$ Long Euros

Friday, 18 February 2011

Soybeans (QBS #F)...the proof of the pudding

Carrying on from this weeks charts
This RL did exactly what was expected of it. The forecast is for lower prices and a retracement of some decent proportions. In the 1 hr chart price is in contact with the RL. Now we wait to see if price will hold above 1360 but i suspect we will see a test of the 1350.00 area

Soybeans (QBS #F)

Carrying on from the recent posts on the beans we are, in my opinion reaching a critical phase.
Price has found support on the blue thick UMLP after being pressured down by a RL from a large TF fork ( indicated as 'RL' in the E-signal charts) which it encountered at the confluence of the two UMLPs (sky blue and violet at 1455).
After a 50% RT it failed to touch the CL and reversed away and has now found support on another RL ( see the Metatrader March 11 charts below)

These RL's are all drawn automatically and show the major RL (arrowed) closer than in the E-signal charts (drawn by hand). A break below 1360 would be truly bearish but is suspect we will see price move in waves between these major lines before a break out. A failure at 1390-1400 ( on the RL) would push prices back to the support line at 1355