Friday 28 October 2011

Back to basics..Tools of my trade...EURUSD

What do you do when you get a significant new low or a new high pivot? Often there is no classic fork to be drawn simply because there is no 'wave' but just a sharp decline or rally ending in a new pivot.
As an example i have pulled a new/clean Copper chart up.
It's easy to draw a fork that expresses price like this one below because there are suitable pivots. By 'expressing price' what do I mean personally? Simply that if the fork is bona fide it's reaction lines (and indeed it's median lines) will demonstrate influence over price and illustrate the relationship between these three pivots ONLY.



For this reason i choose FH as opposed to HH as the angle of the RL's will have a greater effect.
If i were to draw all the reaction lines that express these the pivots below i would need forks using both LL and SL as PO's and also FH and HH as P1.


and here with the four forks and their respective reaction lines in colour matching each fork.This is why the angle and choice of pivot is crucial. the gentler angles of the pink and blue RL's beat the sharper angled RL's and remember the angle changes with the time frame.


Not so easy with these three pivots ? No ,so how can we see whats going on?


So what do I do? Here below is a recent EURUSD chart showing exactly the problem that i have tried to explain above. This is a simple Schiff fork. It is not modified as that type of fork would give us such a steep angle as to be totally useless and please remember i am searching for reaction lines that are of a specific angle so will not always use pivots that many educators would suggest. Here is such an example. The original fork is seen in light grey and has a horizontal attitude. After i see a new pivot i always draw such a fork( even if a classic Andrews fork is possibble) because this fork will gauge the strength of a trend and a failure of this Schiff fork is governed by the same failure rules for any fork. In the current case of EURUSD we have a failure of one specific CL seen below.



Now below we add the fork into a reaction line grid template which shows selected median lines and reaction lines (all in brick red) all with high pivot value of over 75 ( calculated using a formula that expresses each set of 3 pivots/each fork as a numerical value between 1-100 and colour coded).



This is a simple tool which helps to guage market/trend strength.

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