Thursday, 31 May 2012

GBPUSD...reaction line heaven

remember this chart form yesterday? There are only 2 forks in total but below is a study/template in the daily TF and displayed here in the 240 min with 18 various forks (Andrews /blue, Schiff/thin black, FNL & G-Spot in thin green).All lines drawn by custom indicator.

Wednesday, 30 May 2012

Wednesday, 23 May 2012

Gold+ the Truth about the Greek Bailout comes you opportunity to get short..not right now but perhaps during the London session tomorrow ( same as ES M12) maybe as high as 1575 or higher Theres no setup yet but this maybe( when viewed in the 240/daily TF) a dead bounce. Draw the local fork and watch. Regret no more posts till next week.

and NOW Ladies and Gentleman  a story...... courtesy of 'Mark P' Ex fixed income dealer/London and now happily living in France in his Windmill.

Greek bailout story

It’s a slow day in a little Greek village. The sun’s beating down and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody’s in debt and everybody lives on credit. On this particular day a rich German tourist driving through the village stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note as security  on the reception desk, telling the hotel owner that he wants to inspect the bedrooms in order to pick one in which to spend the night. The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and rushes next door to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the €100 note and races down the street to pay his debt to the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the note and heads off to pay his bill to the supplier of fuel and feed. The guy at the Farmers’ Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the taverna. The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him ”services” on credit. The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill. The hotel proprietor places the €100 note on the counter so that the rich traveller will not suspect anything. At that moment the tourist comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are unsatisfactory, pockets the money and leaves town.

Nobody produced anything. No one earned anything. However the whole village is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the bailout package works

Sunday, 20 May 2012

Facebook...1st days chart action

Minute by minute...the first day's trading. This must be one of the most hyped IPOs/floatations ever and this companies true value must be around the 15-20$ mark..perhaps even less considering there's no profitable business model i can see YET for the long term. Currently its worth more than Ebay, Boeing, twice as much as Dell and so on.If ever there was a stock to short?.. heres 10 reasons not to buy it.

Monday, 14 May 2012

EP M12 & YM M12 & EurGbp reaction lines

Below is a chart of EurGbp...Take a look at the effect of the reaction line in relation to it's angle. The sharper the angle the more violent the drop yet it still remains the shallower RL's that have the greatest influence over the longest period.

Friday, 11 May 2012

failed ....EP & YM M12



 Cable could tip off the edge here.

Now below we add another fork with RL's ( red)

  and here's the working template below (with indicators removed for clarity) with other forks and reaction lines added and giving a composite picture of the main reaction and median lines in the higher time frames.

Gold and EPM12

Short Gold.

Trading off reaction line and ML. First position was entered on the arrow and only by the luck of the Gods was not stopped out at 1586.00.
Once scenario i am toying with is that I am fundamentally Long after the touch on the  1573.50 area ML shown here and expect to see a proper cycle wave up to 1620 before going lower and breaking down through this ML to my final objective at 1480-1500 HOWEVER price action is driven by fundamentals /EZ news and if we see continuing weakness we could just fall straight through. see below
SHORT CLOSED 14:43 CET @1582.50
Look at this price action off the retouch of the pink ML . It may go higher but i am out of the short until things are clearer

Thursday, 10 May 2012

Wednesday, 9 May 2012

short S&P/CAC40 closed

It looks like we are not going to get a significant LL today so I am out of my - EPm12@1364 here -abouts. This means we will need to cycle around- do a bar count and give a rough idea of when price and time are ready for the next major move..

E mini S&P M12/Mini Dow M12 & CAC 40 (M12) & Gold

As the meltdown approaches ...We need a lower low on the EPM12 /YM M12 today- now (!)
Gold should find support ( short medium term) at 1570$ as per yesterdays charts.
I am preparing a post called " The Psychology of wishful thinking" ...It concerns Gold and other long trending markets such as the DJII

Tuesday, 8 May 2012

Gold in free-fall... & The CAC40 ( Reverse Fork on Gap)

As the EZ comes apart at the seams (with Greek comments) today gold is making its way to re-test 1600$ and then to support at 1580$

 Below in this final chart i have arrowed two objectives , firstly 1576-80 $ at the black upsloping line & the final one being the pink & blue lines in the bottom RH corner(arrowed) at 1470$

Update: I thought i would show this set of charts of the June 12 Cac40. I have already posted about this daily chart before here.Here is the current situation...the reaction lines shown here are only form these two forks.

Here is a lower TF view showing the failed fork arrowed and the second retest on the RL area today
 Lower TF

Lastly the 60 min chart shows a reverse fork of pivots 1-2-3. The choice of pivot # 3 is simply due to the 'fit' of the reaction lines which describe price perfectly going back several weeks. If i was only working with ML's then i would choose the highest high.This pivot anomaly is something i have seen and worked on for several years and has led to several important developments that are available to view on my professional website.
More importantly in this instance it gives me a chance to extend the top UMLP forward into the present and future path of price seen arrowed below... should price reach.

Monday, 7 May 2012

Gold......& Europe

 Recent Gold activity shown today. This is what i call a 'dead fork' as the mauve lower median line parallel ( arrowed) has so far not had a centre line touch but is stopped by the black lower median line. Once can never be certain you will not get one after an initial fail and recent S&P charts show a series of bounces/failures off the LMLP before and eventual CL touch. 
 ( seen in the link at the very bottom of the post)...however the odds are against it and i would be interested to know what percentage of major forks which fail once or more and then bounce once or more off the LMLP and then go on to touch the CL.. I suspect less than 10%. I do not expect much today but will wait for this wave to develop and see if there is a pattern once it is 'ripe'. Obviously if we make a HH or CL touch before then this also may present a short entry depending on the behaviour both at the CL and on the way up.