Errr...Slight problem in the grains!

Sligght problem in the grains after a bullish USDA report!!

USDA March 2012 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report in billions of bushels (released March 30, 2012, 7:30 a.m. CST)
released March 30, 2012

Crop	USDA March 2012 Estimate	Average Guess	Range	USDA Decmeber 1, 2011 Estimate
Corn	6.01	6.151	5.925 - 6.300	9.641
Soybeans	1.37	1.361	1.228 - 1.467	2.366
Wheat	1.20	1.255	1.181 - 1.410	1.656

USDA NUMBERS
Planted Acreage Estimates (in millions of acres)
	USDA #s	Low Guess	Average Guess	High Guess	USDA Outlook	USDA Last Year
Corn	95.86	93.6	94.75	95.6	94.0	91.921
Soybeans	73.90	74.0	75.45	76.7	75.0	74.976
All Wheat	55.9	55.5	57.422	58.2	58.0	54.409
Winter	41.7	41.5	41.963	42.6	N/A	40.646
Spring	11.976	12.0	13.30	14.5	N/A	12.394
Durham	2.23	1.4	2.30	2.5	N/A	1.369

USDA NUMBERS
US Quarterly Grain Stocks as of March 1st (in billions of bushels)
	USDA #s	Low Guess	Average Guess	High Guess	USDA 3/1/11	USDA 12/1/11
Corn	6.01	5.925	6.150	6.288	6.523	9.642
Soybeans	1.37	1.270	1.387	1.585	1.249	2.366
Wheat	1.20	1.181	1.223	1.251	1.425	1.656

Coffee(K12) & Gold + EurUsd

Coffee's classic failure to make a HH with a Triple tops!! (Always better than double tops) and the near 100% RT at the time of posting

Gold- Nothing more to add on this subject after recent posts but its going lower -but perhaps a new pivot here and a 20 buck push up which is where a short may present itself.

EURUSD...the worm has turned and we are now heading lower and if you look at the 240 min chart there is a stunning fork/CL objective at 1.3225 and 1.3200... so in my opinion lower we go for the time being but my eyes are firmly on tomorrows London session and support at 1.3198 where i maybe tempted into a intraday long position if all the cards line up correctly.

Tomorrow I may reveal my superb Natural Gas chart and a perfect setup for catching the first RT of a trend reversal that i expect to seein the area of 2.05 ( May12) and the combination Reaction line bar count from this swing that give us the confluence not only in price but with time

Coffee ( May12) recovery fails with triple tops

Gold

This is a fairly strong trend up but to where and for how long? Only time will tell but its not over and all eyes are on a test of 1700$

Gold and EURUSD...I hope you saw this coming?

Here's a simple set of forks and red RL's on 240 min EurUsd. Is this a correction or 'as good as it gets'? Price action has had a strange character and a clear 5 wave up move. Even I can count this one without 'fudgeing' the count as i find is so often the case with wave counts....it's all subjective and your count may not be the same as mine but in this case i guess most would agree its a loose 5 wave count...but so what? Theres still a LH and several centre line failures. I think we may see a RT back to 1.3170 area if we break 1.3200.... but as yet i have no firm view on this pair yet but tend towards the downside with the fundamentals that are coming out re the Eurozone and current tech patterns.

GOLD


Two Gold charts that carry on from yesterdays post. The setup never materialised and although we saw price action along the blue UMLP/RL and there could have been a small 5$ trade in there with a tight spread but thats not for me ( not with a 50cent CFD spread anyway) and a poor RR.
I still favour the downside and are sure we will see 1632 but we keep catching on the blue horizontal ML at 1648$. This is a sideways pattern and local forks are of minimum use here exceptone used to desribe the whole move . When a move comes it maybe steep/sharp.

Gold

There are so many factors that pertain to a possible short entry here that they are too numerous to list so this is a preliminary enquiry to a possible trade. If you have seen this site before you know i rarely draw local time frame forks but this one below ( seen here with two different reaction/median line templates) seems important and is 'in play'. I am drawn to the confuence of the reaction line and blue UMLP which run almost parallel. We know the RL works because it is partly responsible for the formation of the pivot and a series of LL's that followed which i have annotated with 'ticks'. The upsloping RL form this blue d/dloping fork has 'caught' price and is carrying it higher but we have a horizontal bisecting ML ( also blue) which will/may support price...see lower 5 min chart. Anew upsloping fork drawn off this morning low pivot gives us a target of 1666 or higher and the CL can be seen only in the 5 min chart. There are numerous other RL's but i am trying to keep this chart simple (!)



As the afternoon wares on I will update this assesment. In the meantime a break below 1648 with a 30 min candle would indicate coming weakness. A break uptowards the target blue UMLP needs to be very carefully watched viz a viz price action/ bar composition/bar count etc. The we will pull on the indicator template and see what we are being told about this minor trend up.

Gold....continued

So carrying on from this post and last weeks post the recent price action we have seen was a double failure or 'retouch' attempt to re-penetrate the ML seen below and in its original context here: Now we will see a small empty bounce at 1644.1645 off the LMLP of the failed fork which will -with high probability- fail at one of the lines either ML or RL. Then another attempt down to penetrate the thick red rection line seen in most of the charts below at 1634.00 and the energy from which has given us the recent cycle up since it touched on 14 Mch.
So i suspect we will see lower prices - but just perhaps we will produce another sideways wave upon touching 1633-34. This possibility cannot be ruled out as we still need a lower low.
Of course this doesnt bode well for EurUsd which currently has an unhealthy correlation( like last winter) with several markets including Gold. Theres a possible trade here which i may post on this site with setup.



"The miracle, or the power, that elevates the few is to be found in their industry, application, and perseverance under the prompting of a brave, determined spirit."..Mark Twain

Gold, EurUsd & CL J12

Nice double tops here or part of a continuation pattern?At the time of posting it certainly looks weak but price can turn on a the head of a pin and if we make a HH then i suggest we will resest the high 1600's but what is more probable is for price to return to the blue horizontal ML at 1648/49$ ( below) but as this pattern stands right now it looks to 'neat' and tidy so there's nothing to do but watch.

I watch Crude but rarely trade it but have a look at the two charts below. Support off the ML and d/sloping reaction lines. This is one of two outcomes. If price holds on the ML then it should surge through and upwards or it will fail here. The fundamentals are slackening for crude but my opinion is that we may see a break either up or down.

Gold.... ( & Eur$)

From yesterday's post heres gold after last nights retouch... As always price does what it wants when it wants and it is never over until the 'Fat Lady sings'. Maybe we will not crash straight down and we may have another touch on the black LMLP. Perhaps we will break above it? I am bearish gold purely on the technical picture but we can see here that it has found support off the dotted reaction line ( which comes from the magenta/pink fork- see yesterday's daily chart).
I supect that price will encounter some resistance off the underside of the dashed red RL at 1661$ area plus there is the small fork in grey i have added which has already offered some structure with a touch on its UMLP. I am deliberately trying to keep this chart uncluttered and simple so price action is more visible.
The euro has surprised me and i was stopped out of a short trade mercifully before the CPI data came out. We have seen over 100 basis point rally and price is heading towards the new dark blue CL at 1.32 area but is now on the green down sloping UMLP. The long range bars suggest that there is more to come but i watch this level 1.3171 with interest.

Gold/EurUsd continued......

Following on from yesterdays posts ....Here's the Euro. I am not short yet but think price will pop upto the thick red reaction line at 1.3070 after hitting the historical ML at 1.3050-55 for another small cycle before it goes lower. If this happens (and its a big if) I will look for a short entry if all conditions/requirements are present.

Gold here is doing exactly what I thought was highly probable.. heres the detail of the retouch and form the chart posted yesterday.

Gold/EurUsd continued......

A classic piece of price action...retouch and/or "dead mans bounce" / "dead cat bounce"......and viz a viz EurUsd and the current tight correlation...we should see a mirror effect in both markets perhaps?

The man who- told them he thought Gold had further to fall!

With apologies to HM Bateman

Simple fork work here below:


and the more complicated picture below in 60 mins:

and 5 mins:

You can draw a perfect Andrews fork and watch for a failure at the CL which lies at about 1685-1690$.. I have my eyes on 1650 ( here) then 1661 to 1677 levels as well. All of these levels may present a short entry once confirmed . Until then i watch this recovery from the recent fall in horror as Gold's price correlation with the EURUSD pair has returned with a vengence....surely not a good sign.
1672$ level next to watch.

EURUSD...I don't trust this move up

We all know price can do what it wants when it wants but some things are more probable than others. I never argue with price if i can avoid it....However(!) this doesnt look right to me. How any times have we seen a energy coils ( those tops i posted about earlier) and then a break out with real panache and energy and you do not see a retracement of nearly 50% so soon. As i am writing this price is now making a second top with a lower high and if i were a doctor i would say the patient is sick! This move up doesnt convince me one bit and if i were more reckless i would sell at the top of this range ( 1.3075 or better) with a 7pt stop but it certainly starts to look like a false breakout (look at the candles in the 30 min and 1 hour charts)............and it now looks highly probable that we are going back to touch the "line that keeps on giving" at 1.3050 1.3055 but we may make several more trips up and down first and of course there is the possibility that we could break out upwards but for the moment i am staying out of this type of behaviour and am flat.

EURUSD 1 min: Triple/quadrouple tops......or continuation?

Looks like we are going higher but just in case i have a sell stop at 1.3044 ...Just pleased i was not mixed up in that. This is the same line as i posted about here
If we break up i expect to see 1.3080 quickly but afailure here along the downloping black ML will see us fall back to 1.3000 where there is also unfinsihed business.

EurUsd...1.3055 The line that keeps on giving!..continued

The Euro is going lower.. This is a failure and all we have seen is energy being expended but I will wait until London session tomorrow for a possible short ....perahps a retest of 1.3100 BUT beware anything can happen but some things are more probable and some things are less probable and there is a possible bounce as price rumbles along above this line...keep connecting the most recent low pivot/p2 to see what may happen.