Monday, 30 December 2013

Crucial turning point for Gold lies ahead at $1150. Critical historic mega Andrews Pitchfork + DAX.... My New Year gift to you!

This is my New Years gift to you! Notwithstanding that I have now already offered you entry levels in Sugar and Coffee (see previous posts). Although I rarely try to pick bottoms I personally think from a purely technical poiint of view that we are near both in Sugar and Coffee BUT we should all remember the old phrase that was often told when i worked in the London futures and FX markets in the 80's and 90's...
" People who try to pick bottoms get dirty fingers"!!! Perhaps a touch crude but still true in this context so beware in any contratrend setup and patience is the greatest virtue. I prefer to wait for the new trend and then pick the first or second retracement using the B-Line and 2 x system.
 Anyway and with that in mind here's another historical pitchfork that we will be using to gain a long
contra- trend entry. The effect of historical Andrew's and non Andrew's pitchforks is beyond doubt (and  reveals time and time again important market structure of the price matrix) but my work on horizontal pitchforks provides extremely high probability setups  which surpasses normal historical high time frame forks and the horizontal or near horizontal median line adds an extra degree of probability. This chart shows the mega-fork. Ignore it at your peril.

I suggest that there is an extremely high probability of price touching this area at the centre line  $1150 and rebounding and after all this is the big Daddy of all Gold pitchforks. However I am not saying price will reverse long term but it will rally to some degree and can say that with a high degree of confidence.
Here's another study & PF with Reaction lines.
and finally a composite chart of nearly all the above charts is shown below indicating the confluence of two mega median lines ( one from a fork not visible above). What i propose is to overlay whatever technical indicator template you use over the linear studies comprising of median and reaction lines and then consider your entry if your system indicates so. I use an overlay of Bolly bands & MA's plus the B-line ( fast and slow stochs) and 2 x  template.
It has worked for me with some minor tweeking( i often use it in higher time frames than intended and use the stoch patterns/divergence etc) and gives me the opportunity to enter a trade and get multiple time frame confirmations.

 Below cash DAX also is nearing one of its it's major centre line objectives....

Friday, 20 December 2013

Coffee KC Hits bottom.Looks like we have finally found lasting support.

I will stalk a retracement of the last few days move upto the 115.80 level and try to pick the first entry of the new trend ( I believe) using the B-Line and 2 x indicator template. Ideally 111.20 of a 50% RT. Wait to see the behaviour around the reaction line. We may fail on first attempt to get up and thru it so beware picking a long here. Maybe it will zoom straight thru?

Thursday, 19 December 2013

Thursday, 12 December 2013

The emini S&P plus the VIX and the high probability trades from horizontal median lines and reaction line combo setups

Remember this green horizontal pitchfork from previous posts in recent days? If you read my coursework and my own advances in reaction line & pitchfork theory you will know that my own study and observations reveal that horizontal PF's have a 45% greater probability of pivot formation/creation at their centre lines than normal Andrews PF's that can be highly unreliable when used alone. This doesn't mean to say that we are seeing a bottom here but you can say with alarmingly high probability that you will see a bounce of some degree or other.
Expect a second touch on this green CL now and possibly a penetration.
Here below are the same charts as in the previous post. Remember all reaction lines here are drawn by auto indicator and even tho i may manually thicken them they are not arbitrary trend lines or multi pivot lines

 Below FNL forks reveal the line of first resistance ( reaction lines) using the end of the first impulse wave  in the VIX and also show a classic Andrews PF in black
 using two different pivots

Close up

Friday, 6 December 2013

Emini S & P and Dow: All points higher...equity markets technically strong post US non Farm Payrolls data

Same charts as yesterday shown below with the same pitchforks and multiple reaction lines ( from historical PF's- some Andrews, occasionally schiff or non schiff but more often than not FNL Pitchforks) drawn by auto MT4 Pitchfork tool. Using PFs' and Andrews theory we can assess the non touch on the green horizontal centre line as bullish. Also see how price has now escaped the band of down sloping reaction lines and showing typical behaviour gives energy release in the form of upward movement.

Thursday, 5 December 2013

ES Z13

 So close  yet so far?

 In detail...... Look at the reaction  lines in brick red. In some areas i have manually thickened the reaction lines using a manual trend line along the same axis. It is clear that the green centre line at 1775 of the almost horiozontal PF shown below in the SPOO's is our target if Q-easing worries become worse. Look back at this CL to see previous price action/distribution.