Monday, 20 July 2015

Gold Touchdown and Sugar (continued)

 I dont want to say " I told you so" but all that glitters is not gold.

 I dont trade Gold but this chart with the two ML's shown are absolutely worth including in this post

 Touchdown on the CL

 Now this is remarkable: you may say its crazy that  in the 5 min time frame the centre lines of the blue and red PF/ML are in this position yet in the chart above the green ML has not even been touched.. Look at the correlation with price in the 5 min chart below and as I always remind the reader: The skill is knowing where each ML/RL is in every time frame. Anomalies such as this are due to scaling issues plus PF indicator coding and our 2D price/data representation systems.After nearly 10 years of study I can tell you this phenomena can be replicated on any chart and that neatly brings me back to Sugar.


Please read the previous posts on Sugar LINK LINK1
Here comes the retouch on the green LMLP and a retest of 11.00. Personally the gap down and current price action suggest we may make a lower low around 10.90. Whatever the future holds the bias remains lower but you will see another sideways bounce-use these horizontal ML's as high probability entry areas. I am holding my cards tightly for a long entry around the big figure


Wednesday, 15 July 2015

Sugar(V15) and Oil (CL Q15) continued

Sugar continues to stabilise after touching the LMLP at the 11.33 area although we have seen price penetrate lower below the line. It may well retouch the green line before it can be ascertained if we have seen a new low pivot formed, However this does not affect our short term swing trade.


This chart below shows two pitchforks. The classic Andrews Pitch Fork: A-B-C and my proprietary FNL (First n' Last or FNL ) pitch fork:1-2-3. The relationship between the first pivot formed (2) after a new low pivot but before any retracement ( ie the impulse wave) and then using 1 & 3 always shows remarkable frequency with price and will give you the very first objective of any trend/countertrend. I have ticked in red successive pivots as my empirical study shows that they all have a profound influence on future price both in terms of ML's and RL's. With justABC and 123 drawn you can see the reaction lines and their effect on price. Please note the effect of the angle of any reaction line. Horizontal lines remain (again revealed by my empirical study 2006-2011/12) the most effective and high probability trade areas.

 Oil Cl Q15

CL Q15 is a classic example of the horizontal ML and its power and use as a trading tool as seen in my previous example:

Sunday, 12 July 2015

The anatomy of a reaction line using Crude oil + Sugar - we ask: "Has the fat lady finally sung" ?

Regarding the sugar market we have had our attention drawn by a historical median line and pitchfork as seen below. It has indisputable frequency and past correlation with price action as indicated by the arrows round its structure. Regardless of the current price bias to the downside its is highly probable this line will cause price to react and there is also a probability of a new pivot being formed here. This sugar chart is similar to the AUDUSD example I have used to demonstrate the same principle. I am unsure about whether to expect a retouch and retest.

Anatomy of a Reaction Line. CL Q15

The annotations and commentary will be added when i have the time but it should be self evident. The skill using these trading techniques is to understand and interpret what you are actually seeing viz a viz scaling and line location and the angle and position of any RL  which varies in each time frame. Failing to do this correctly will leave you with a chart that demonstrates little correlation between line structure and price action. This is the fruit of nearly 10 years research & in my opinion cannot and should not  be underestimated.Please remember all lines are drawn by the custom indicator with the exception of manually inserted solid thin red overlaid lines.

Wednesday, 8 July 2015

continued: Equity futures and the development of the long term topping out pattern plus the Grains and Crude plsu long EURGBP

 Crude hits the horizontal CL of the black PF and bounces. Expect a second touch.

Grains to follow below
Finally- this ones going all the way EURGBP